Bill Street
A one-person quantitative trading firm, with a research desk that punches far above its account size.
The manifesto
The famous quant shops win with capital, co-located servers and armies of PhDs. We'll never beat them at speed. But most of their edgeisn't magic — it's discipline: defined process, valuation done properly, risk respected, and decisions made by maths instead of mood. That part is not gated behind a billion-dollar balance sheet.
Bill Street packages that discipline into a platform a single person can run on a Stake account. The same DCF a sell-side analyst builds in a weekend spreadsheet, the same factor tilts the big funds harvest, the same volatility-based expected moves the options desks price — computed transparently, on demand, for US & ASX names.
We are deliberately honest about what we don't know. Our own backtests show the naïve momentum signal doesn't beat a coin flip at short horizons. We publish that. A firm that hides its losing tests is a marketing company; a firm that learns from them is a research desk.
We don't promise to call tops and bottoms. We stack repeatable, positive-expectancy decisions and let probability work.
Every formula, input and backtest is published. If you can't audit it, we won't ship it.
Recommendations are gated by upside-to-fair-value and framed with explicit risks. Capital preservation before heroics.
Built by Claude, end to end
The entire stack — data ingestion, the valuation and factor engine, the ODTE expected-move desk, the walk-forward backtest harness and this site — was designed and written by Claude (Anthropic) in TypeScript on Next.js. It's engineered to be read, audited and extended, not to impress with opacity.
A straight word on the "millions"
No website can guarantee profit, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something. What Bill Street gives you is an institutional-grade research process at zero cost, with the maths exposed so you can trust it or challenge it. Whether it makes money depends on your strategy, your discipline and the market. Trade small, manage risk, and treat every output as one input among many — not a promise.
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